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While some auto industry folks, some oil-soaked investors, and some tech-adoption laggards would love to believe the EV revolution is over and EV market share will stop growing, the fact is: the future is electric. EV sales continue to grow in most places (Germany’s policy chaos and EV market excluded), and new milestones are broken every month. China has reached +50% EV market share (26% full BEV), California has reached 25% EV market share (21.4% full BEV), and the UK has reached 27.4% EV market share (18.5% full BEV). The UK, by the way, 1) isn’t close to done, but 2) intends to be done quite soon.
The UK government has moved up its plans for an ICE (internal combustion engine) vehicle ban to 2030. That’s in just 5½ years. The country intends to get from about one out of five new car sales being electric to all new cars being electric in a handful of years. And the thing is, that doesn’t actually require much work. The market will probably carry the UK there pretty naturally. Norway was at 20.8% BEV share in 2017 and is now at 92% BEV share, but BEV options were much more limited a few years ago than today, and today’s EV options will look pale, weak, and expensive compared to the options we’ll have in 2030! Frankly, I still find it hard to believe that gas-powered vehicles will be competitive anywhere in 2030, especially with Chinese automakers already sending cost-competitive, long-range electric cars to less wealthy countries around the world.
Now, we should note that the UK actually had the 2030 target “ICE ban” originally, but the previous government decided to walk that back for some reason in September 2023. (Presumably, conservative politicians hate our highly livable climate and are eager for Armageddon.) With more progressive, future-minded Labour politicians now running the government, the original plans are back — as they promised it would be.
“The Department for Transport (DfT) intends to ‘provide certainty’ to manufacturers by restoring the 2030 phase-out date for the sale of new petrol and diesel cars,” FleetNews wrote a few weeks ago. “However, with the DfT only referring to cars in its plans, it remains unclear whether the deadline will also be brought forward from 2035 to 2030 for fossil fuelled vans. There is also uncertainty over how a new 2030 deadline will apply to both mild and plug-in hybrid electric vehicles (PHEVs), with the original legislation stating the sale of new hybrid cars and vans that can drive a ‘significant distance with no carbon coming out of the tailpipe’ would be allowed until 2035.”
We shall see what happens, but without a doubt, the UK is moving forward on its adoption of EVs, and it is well ahead of the United States. The US led the world in many tech transitions, but we are far, far behind China in this one, well behind the UK even, and significantly trailing Europe as a whole. This is despite being home to the best selling BEV producer in the world. Clearly, something is wrong with US policy and culture. Ironically, Donald Trump has said that he’d repeal Joe Biden’s EV mandate if elected again … but Biden hasn’t implemented an EV mandate, and there’s no way one would have gotten through Congress in the first place. But hey, the news is about the UK, and instead of being an old, slow-moving grandfather to the USA, it’s clear that Great Britain is moving faster and more ambitiously into the future than we are.
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